Tags: Robin | Fed | taper | October

Newedge's Robin: Fed Taper in October 'Would Be a Nightmare'

Thursday, 26 Sep 2013 08:17 AM

By Michelle Smith

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Expecting the Federal Reserve to taper this year is a path to further disappointment, because current monetary policy will remain in place until 2014, says David Robin, senior vice president at Newedge.

Market participants were largely shocked by the Fed's decision last week to maintain the pace of its stimulus programs. Some are now looking for tapering in either October or December, when the Federal Open Market Committee holds the last meetings of the year.

Non-believers, such as Robin, think it's unlikely that data could be that convincing in the span of a few weeks.

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"I think it's very difficult to see them tapering in October," Robin told CNBC.

"Even if you get a strong payroll number in the early part of October, you're still going to have an above-7-percent [unemployment] rate, you're still going to have smoothed-out non-farm payrolls growth below 200,000. That is not the recipe for removing tapering," he argued.

Robin doesn't believe the Fed would "position" the market for no tapering, then create a jolt with a rapid reversal in its course.

"If they were concerned about credibility and not tapering, for them to taper in October would be a nightmare," he stated.

Robin also sees virtually no chance of tapering in December, which he believes will be Janet Yellen's first meeting at the helm of the Fed.

"Unless the data is substantially better than it is now, I'm hard-pressed to see her first decision at the first meeting to start to remove stimulus when she's even on the more dovish side of [Fed Chairman Ben] Bernanke," he noted.

Therefore, he's "hard-pressed to see any tapering action until early 2014."

And since he expects the Fed to continue its massive bond purchases, Robin sees Treasury yields declining. The 10-year will likely end 2013 "below 2.5, probably close to 2.35 in a continuation of a non-tapering, lower-for-longer environment," Robin projected.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard says a decision to taper next month is a possibility, though it's not given.

"[Y]ou could argue there's not going to be all that much information coming in, and maybe the committee will stand pat again in October. But the normal process for monetary policy is you have a meeting for a reason. It's because you assess the data that's come in and then you make small adjustments to monetary policy in response," he told Fox Business Network.

Furthermore, Bullard explained that the Fed is likely to consider more than current employment data.

"So maybe some revisions to past data, strong jobs reports, some indication of third quarter GDP was coming in, that the housing market was withstanding the higher rates. Things like that could accumulate to a decision to taper," Bullard said.

Editor’s Note: Weird Trick Adds $1,000 to Your Social Security Checks

Related Stories:

WSJ: Bernanke's Decision Against Tapering Shows 'Failure of Nerve'

Fed's Bullard: October Taper Is Still Possible, Depending on Data

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