Tags: Lebow | oil | 75 | 2013

Jeffries Bache’s Lebow: Oil May Fall to $75 Next Year

Friday, 21 Dec 2012 07:56 AM

By Dan Weil

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Oil prices might drop to $75 in 2013 amid bountiful supply and sluggish demand, says Andrew Lebow, senior vice president of energy derivatives at Jefferies Bache.

February crude oil futures closed at $90.01 on the NYMEX Thursday, down 12 cents.

“Next year’s demand [in the U.S.] will probably grow 800,000 barrels per day, after an 800,000-barrel-per-day growth in 2012," Lebow tells Yahoo.

Editor's Note: The ‘Unthinkable’ Could Happen — Wall Street Journal. Prepare for Meltdown

"That’s really sluggish growth. Supplies for 2013 are going to be much higher than what the demand is projected to be.”

To be sure, Lebow sees no guarantee that oil will stay weak all year, particularly if things heat up in Iran. He predicts a range of $75 to $100 for 2013 as a whole.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices have dropped to their lowest levels of the year this week, standing at $3.22 a gallon Thursday. Bulging gasoline inventories could push prices down even further in early 2013, Lebow says.

Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Bank of America, is another oil bear.

He focuses on excess supply too.

“[W]e're producing a lot of crude oil in this country,” he tells CNBC. “We saturated the transportation system, and I think we could saturate the refining system in the next 18 months."

With domestic demand sluggish, either production will have to slow down or the government will have to permit more crude exports, Blanch says.

Editor's Note: The ‘Unthinkable’ Could Happen — Wall Street Journal. Prepare for Meltdown

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