Goldman Sachs: Commodity Supercycle Isn’t Over

Friday, 07 Dec 2012 08:29 AM

By Dan Weil

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The supercycle that saw the prices for many commodity prices soar over the past decade hasn’t finished yet, according to Goldman Sachs.

Commodities won’t appreciate much going forward, but bursts of global demand will spark short-term shortages, according to a new report from the bank. And that will create mini rallies in various commodities, it says.

“It is tempting to call an end” to the commodity supercycle, thanks to increased supplies and slowing growth in China, the report says, according to Marketwatch.

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But what awaits investors is “the next phase of a commodity investment cycle that began in the late 1990s that will create new opportunities,” Goldman analysts write. “We therefore view the current transition as a ‘renaissance’ rather than an end.”

Goldman forecasts that gold will hit $1,825 an ounce in the next three months, before gradually sliding. The metal traded at $1,701.55 early Friday.

The bank predicts that West Texas Intermediate crude oil will average $105.50 next year, up from $86.50 for the January NYMEX contract Thursday.

Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff is more bullish on gold than Goldman Sachs is. “I think it will go to $3,000, $5,000, higher than that,” he tells Yahoo.

“A lot depends on decisions that haven’t been made yet. How much money are we going to print? How long are we going to try to keep interest rates artificially low? How long is it going to take before the world realizes that we’ve been conning them?”

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