Tags: BP | US | oil | demand

BP Forecast: US Is Destined to Be an Energy Giant Again

Monday, 17 Mar 2014 07:27 AM

By John Morgan

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Domestic energy production is destined to outstrip consumption in coming years, led by natural gas and U.S. dominance as the world's biggest producer, so that the nation will stand totally energy independent by 2035, according to a long-range global study by oil giant BP.

Worldwide, demand for energy will go up 41 percent by 2035, primarily because of use in emerging economies, BP estimated.

During that time period, the U.S. share of global demand is expected to decline to 13 percent from the current 18 percent, and China's demand will go up to 27 percent from the current 22 percent.

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Bob Dudley, BP Group CEO, is optimistic the world will not run out of energy. "The growth rate for global demand is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply."

BP estimated global carbon dioxide emissions will grow by 29 percent by 2035, but emissions in the United States and Europe will actually decline.

Oil consumption is expected to post the slowest growth of any energy form until 2035 — even slower than coal thanks to Chinese and Indian demand — and natural gas is expected to grow the fastest. By 2035, North America will account for 71 percent of the world's shale gas production, BP predicted.

BP said there are multiple reasons why the United States will be energy self-sufficient by 2035, in addition to its increased production of both natural gas and oil.

The oil giant predicted U.S. energy production would rise by 24 percent, while consumption would expand by only 3 percent, in part because of advances in energy efficiency. In addition, it said, natural gas would replace oil as the leading U.S. fuel consumed by around 2027, renewables would jump from 2 percent to 8 percent of power generation and energy consumed for transportation would decline by 18 percent.

The U.S. oil industry is already ranked third among countries worldwide and that U.S. production should surpass Saudi Arabia by 2018, according to the International Energy Agency, The Motley Fool reported.

The Daily Caller reported government data show U.S. crude oil production for 2013 reached its highest levels since 1989, averaging 7.5 million billion barrels per day.

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