While some experts have begun to call for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, Pimco strategic adviser Richard Clarida doesn’t see that happening anytime soon.
The Fed has pushed the federal funds rate down to almost zero to pull the economy out of recession.
“I think the Fed is on hold throughout this year, throughout 2010,” Clarida told Bloomberg.
“The Fed has actually done a good job in laying out the broad parameters of an exit strategy. But they’re nowhere close I think to begin implementing an exit strategy.”
The economy isn’t strong enough to permit the Fed to lift rates yet, Clarida says.
“The recession is over globally,” he says.
“The real issue now going forward is, what does the recovery look like? It will be a very choppy, volatile growth path with an average of 2 percent.”
The U.S. economy shrank 1 percent in the second quarter, after a 6.4 percent contraction in the first.
As for prices, Clarida said, “near term I don’t think there’s an inflation threat.”
“As we move out three to five years, you do have to look at potential upside pressures to inflation through commodity prices, global growth and the Fed’s exit strategy.”
Others see the Fed on hold too.
“Concerns over the sustainability of the recovery mean that the Fed will not start to tighten policy anytime soon,” Paul Dales of Capital Economics wrote in a report cited by The Wall Street Journal.
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