IMF's Lagarde Pleads: Fed Tapering Will Be 'Arduous' on Global Economy

Friday, 23 Aug 2013 07:52 PM

By Newsmax Wires

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The head of the International Monetary Fund cautioned the world's major central banks Friday not to withdraw their unconventional support for weak economies too soon, according to numerous wire service reports.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said stimulative policies are still needed in key regions, especially Europe and Japan, which have struggled with prolonged weakness.

Lagarde and many global central bank officials fear the increased risks of a sharp economic slowdown in emerging markets while the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling that it could slow its bond purchases later this year if the U.S. economy continues to improve. The Fed's bond buying has helped keep U.S. interest rates near record lows.

“Even if managed well,” Lagarde said of a central bank’s exit from easy-money policies, that could still present an “arduous obstacle course” for other countries, The Los Angeles Times reported. Lagarde said what’s needed is greater policy coordination and cooperation for the sake of the entire globe.

Editor’s Note: Put the World’s Top Financial Minds to Work for You

“No country is an island,” she said Friday at the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.. "Looking at the wider effect is in your self-interest," she said. "It is in all of our interests."

Lagarde said central banks must carefully develop strategies for scaling back their efforts to keep borrowing rates low. Any pullback should be determined by the strength of individual economies, she said.

"Unconventional monetary policy is still needed in all places it is being used, albeit longer for some than for others," Lagarde said in her speech to the conference.

The anticipation of a slowdown in Fed bond buying has unsettled U.S. stock and bond markets and sent interest rates up. Rising U.S. rates have, in turn, triggered turmoil in some emerging economies, such as Turkey, India and Indonesia. Officials in those countries have tried to halt declines in the value of their currencies as investors have shifted money into higher-yielding investments elsewhere.

Lagarde took note of the market declines that have followed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's signal in June that the Fed could begin slowing its bond purchases later this year if the U.S. economy strengthens further.

She said finance officials should prepare contingency plans in case market turbulence worsens.

“We need further lines of defense -- lines of defense that reflect our interdependence, our common purpose, and our mutual responsibility for the global economy,” Lagarde said at the event sponsored by the Kansas City Fed.

“Swap lines -- along the lines provided by major central banks early in the crisis -- can help,” and the IMF stands “ready to provide policy advice and financial support,” she said.

The effects of the Fed’s potential tapering of its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases are showing in global markets. Emerging economies have seen an exodus of cash, with their 20 most-traded currencies falling about 4.4 percent in the past three months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We are all globally on a path to recovery, still fragile, not yet strong enough, and with this very strong support from the unconventional monetary policy,” Lagarde said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Sara Eisen.

Meanwhile, some investors think the Fed could announce at its next meeting in September that it's reducing its bond purchases. But comments from Fed officials at Jackson Hole suggested some disagreement within the central bank over the proper timing for a slowdown to begin.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggested in an interview with CNBC that he might be ready to endorse a bond-buying slowdown in September. But James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, said he thought the economy remains too uncertain for a pullback next month.

"I don't think we have to be in any hurry," Bullard said in a separate interview with CNBC. "I think we want to take our time and assess what is going on."

Bullard is a voting member of the Fed's interest rate panel this year. Lockhart takes part in discussions but doesn't have a vote this year. Their remarks mirrored the divided opinion that was evident in the minutes of the Fed's July meeting released this week.

In her speech, Lagarde said the support being provided by major central banks is buying time for nations to implement key economic reforms.

"Push ahead with deeper reforms to lay the foundation for durable and lasting growth," Lagarde said. "Do not waste the space provided by unconventional monetary policies."

For example, she said troubled nations in Europe must repair their financial systems before credit can start flowing normally again.

Lagarde said some emerging market countries have taken steps to prepare for the shocks that could occur as the United States and other major economies withdraw their extraordinary support and borrowing rates rise to historically normal levels. But she said more work would be needed.

She said the IMF will provide support where possible, including emergency loans to countries that need them.

Lagarde said that “clarity of when things will happen, how things will happen” is needed as the Federal Reserve considers unwinding its bond buying program in order to minimize the impacts on financial markets and the effect on emerging markets.

“The signaling effect matters almost more than the actual implementation,” she said.

As the global economy recovers, Lagarde said she thinks the IMF may shift to a role in which emerging economies use the fund’s precautionary instruments to insure their economies.

“The IMF will continue to be prominent if it really focuses on its members’ needs,” according to the IMF chief.

Editor’s Note: Put the World’s Top Financial Minds to Work for You

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