While gurus such as Bill Gross say the economy is in a phase with a “new normal” growth capacity of 1 to 2 percent, Jim Paulsen disagrees.
The chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management says we still have 3 to 3.5 percent growth in store.
"Corporations are expecting slack growth in coming years, and have hunkered down,” Paulsen says.
“We're really spring-loaded for upside surprise rather than nuclear winter."
What’s going to fuel this growth? Rising exports, he tells Barron’s.
Real net exports already added 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent to GDP since 2007, despite standing in negative territory, Barron’s points out.
That contribution is a result of the trade gap shrinking from $650 billion, or almost 6 percent of GDP, to under 3 percent.
"The phenomenon is one of addition by subtraction, as the negative trade balance detracts less from GDP growth over time, compared to past periods,” Paulsen says.
“Over the next decade, GDP should get a big boost from U.S. trade moving into rough balance between exports and imports."
Paulsen provides quite a contrast to economist Nouriel Roubini, who wrote in a recent research note that the global economy may fall back into recession thanks to huge government debt, high oil prices, and joblessness.
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