Perma-bear David Tice, chief strategist for Federated’s Prudent Bear Fund, says stocks have a lot more room to fall before the market hits bottom.
He should know. His fund is up 16 percent this year while the Dow has dropped 22 percent.
“There are some stocks that are cheap,” Tice acknowledged in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
“But this market structure is in a cataclysmic breakdown. I don’t think we’ve seen capitulation yet.”
Tice points out that while the asset total of equity mutual funds has dropped an astounding $3.1 trillion, to a total of $3.4 trillion, in the 13 months through Feb. 1, only $100 billion of the decline represents investment outflow.
“And there was actually an inflow in January,” he points out.
“Even though a lot of people are negative, there hasn’t been much selling yet,” Tice says. “The market doesn’t bottom at these levels.”
Tick sees the bottom at half of book value, another 25 percent or so from current levels.
“I have a feeling book value is dramatically lower from here. Book value on the S&P 500 is in the 500 range.”
Tice isn’t alone.
Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners, tells the Associated Press: “With all the uncertainty that has been created, long-term investors are not stepping in.”
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