FX Concepts’ John Taylor: Greece Will Exit the Eurozone This Summer

Tuesday, 08 May 2012 01:08 PM

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Greece will default on its debts owed to its neighbors and multilateral lending institutions and abandon the eurozone some this summer, says John Taylor, founder of the FX Concepts hedge fund.

The European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have allocated hundreds of billions of dollars for Greece, who must adhere to politically unpopular austerity measures such as spending cuts and layoffs in order to tap those funds.

Recent election results reveal a populace growing increasingly angry at the pain austerity entails, with traditional political parties garnering less than 50 percent of the votes in parliamentary elections while fringe parties gaining, throwing the leadership make up of the country into doubt.

In just a few months, Athens will throw its hands in the air and exit the currency zone.

"This summer I think is very likely. The Europeans aren't going to give them the money, the IMF's not going to give them an okay. They will be out of money in June," Taylor tells Bloomberg TV.

Default can disrupt markets as fears persist others may be tempted to go that route.

While default ruins a country's creditworthiness, the ensuing devaluation makes exports cheaper and lays the seeds for growth once the dust settles.
Europe would be better suited to allow Greece to exit and keep the rest of the nations in, Taylor points out.

"I don't think it will be absolute chaos. I think that what will happen instead of them trying to rescue the Greeks is they're going to turn around and huddle together and say how do I help Portugal and Spain."

Politicians in Germany, the motor of the European economy, have warned Greece that failure to adhere to austerity agreements could mean no more bailout money.

"The agreements must be respected. I don't think we can or should renegotiate," says Martin Schulz, a German politician and president of the European Parliament, according to Reuters.



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