The global economy is balancing "on a knife's edge" and facing four tipping points that will push the world into collapse or towards repair and prosperity, say Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, the world's largest bond fund.
First, European economic and financial fragmentation could shove the world into a recession if not dealt with.
Secondly, Middle East unrest could escalate and roil the politically tense and oil-rich area of the world further.
Third, Central Banks are running out of tools to kick-start growth in struggling economies, which need more action from political leadership and fourth, social unrest stemming from grassroots movements like Occupy Wall Street could worsen — or manifest themselves into forward-looking policy reforms.
Addressing and fixing those problems would serve as a recipe to lasting recovery.
"The world economy faces an unsettling outlook for the next few years. It can either break out of its current malaise and deliver economic prosperity, jobs, and greater social fairness; or, instead, it can slip deeper into unemployment, inequality, financial instability, and trade wars," El-Erian writes in a Foreign Policy piece.
"Neither is preordained at this stage as leaders still have an important ability to influence outcomes to the better. But, as Europe demonstrates, the longer they dither and bicker, the higher the risk that policies will lose both effectiveness and credibility."
A survey carried out by the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, a forum for bankers and regulators funded by institutions including the Bank of England, shows a fragile global economy threatens the financial sector more than any other factor.
"The fragility of the world economy with the possibility of a return to recession poses the greatest risk to the banking industry in these turbulent times," the London-based group said in a statement, according to Bloomberg.
"The picture painted by this survey is unquestionably the bleakest we have seen in more than 15 years."
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