The biggest danger for the global economy isn’t a double-dip recession, but rather inflation, says Joachim Fels, co-head of economics at Morgan Stanley.
That’s because of the massive monetary stimulus engineered by central banks in the United States and Europe, he tells CNBC.
"Fears of a double-dip recession are overdone, and the risks are now to the upside," Fels said, noting that global growth registered 5 percent in the last year.
“We continue to worry more about the longer-term inflationary risks associated with extreme monetary accommodation.”
U.S. short-term interest rates are almost zero.
And Fels says he has no confidence that U.S. and European governments will have the strength to reverse fiscal stimulus.
Already, the Federal Reserve is exporting inflation to emerging markets, he says. That’s because they’re mimicking the Fed’s low rate policies to keep their currencies from rising, which would curb their exports.
"In India we are seeing signs of rising prices, and inflation is now the major risk,” Fels said.
But central banks in the U.S. and Europe are willing to let inflation rise in order to ease repayment of their governments’ debt, he says.
Janet Briaud, CEO of Briaud Financial Advisors in Bryan, Tex., takes issue with Fels.
She believes there will actually be deflation soon. “You have wages coming down, high unemployment, very low velocity of money,” Briaud told Newsmax.TV.
“Banks aren’t lending. People aren’t borrowing. It’s just not an inflationary environment.”
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