Tags: Hulbert | Oct. 9 | stocks | pivot

Hulbert: Oct 9 Has Been Stock Market Pivot Point Twice Before; Will it Again?

Wednesday, 10 Oct 2012 08:30 AM

By Dan Weil

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The stock market’s stumble Tuesday might prove to be just a blip on the 3 ½-year-old bull market.

Then again, it could prove to be the beginning of a bear market, says MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert.

“Don’t laugh. It turns out that two of the most prominent market turning points of the last decade occurred on this very date [Oct. 9],” he writes.

Editor's Note: The ‘Unthinkable’ Could Happen — Wall Street Journal. Prepare for Meltdown

The first was Oct. 9, 2002, when stocks ended their bear market of 2000-2002. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average proceeded to about double, reaching their peak … you guessed it, Oct. 9, 2007.

Hammered by the financial crisis, the two indices plunged about 50 percent to their March 2009 lows.

Hulbert didn’t express an opinion as to whether Tuesday’s decline is the start of something bigger, but notes, “Our minds love to find patterns, even when none exists. Be skeptical of any patterns that are urged upon you until and unless they can withstand statistical scrutiny.”

Market participants are mixed as to the path of stocks from here.

Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah predicts that investors will be in a “risk-off” phase until after the elections in November and that the S&P 500 will drop down to — or even below — the lows of 2011, according to CNBC.

On the other hand, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management, tells CNBC the S&P 500 could hit 1,500 soon if the U.S. and emerging market economies grow faster, as he expects.

Editor's Note: The ‘Unthinkable’ Could Happen — Wall Street Journal. Prepare for Meltdown

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