If Mitt Romney is elected president, Columbia University business school dean Glen Hubbard or Harvard economist Greg Mankiw are most likely to replace Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve, according to a Deutsche Bank analysis.
Bernanke’s term ends in early 2014. Romney has promised to replace him, and Bernanke has intimated he will resign after this term regardless of who is elected president.
If President Barack Obama wins, the most likely choices are Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman, or Janet Yellen, current vice chairwoman of the Fed, according to the Deutsche report obtained by Business Insider.
Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did
Stanford University economist John Taylor is an outside possibility for Romney, and Donald Kohn, another former Fed vice chairman, is an outside possibility for Obama, the Deutsche analysts say.
“All would qualify as mainstream macroeconomists, though there is a reasonably wide gulf at present between Yellen on the dovish side and Taylor on the hawkish,” they write.
The Fed would almost certainly abandon its easing program more quickly under a hawkish regime, the report says.
An extremely hawkish appointment would roil financial markets, which is why most analysts see little chance for Taylor.
Among other names that have come up in various press reports are former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, current Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and New York Fed President William Dudley for Obama.
And for Romney, it’s Harvard economist Martin Feldstein and former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh.
Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did
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