Goldman Sachs: Two-Tiered Housing Market Might Create More Bubbles

Monday, 12 Nov 2012 07:46 AM

By Peter Moses

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A two-tiered in the global housing market has developed among developed countries whose housing markets were not hit hard during the global financial crisis and whose economies have bounced back and those countries where the housing market downturn is continuing, a new Goldman Sachs report shows.

The report, titled “Just Don’t Look Down: Some Housing Markets Are Flying Again,” states that monetary policies by some of the globe’s major central banks are providing fuel to fresh housing bubbles and creating deeper economic fissures between countries that fall on either side of the equation.

The “housing high-flyers,” where the economy has improved and housing prices have increased strongly, include Switzerland, Israel, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, France, Norway, Canada and Australia.

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: ‘Money From Heaven a Path to Hell.’ See Evidence.

The “housing low-flyers,” where housing prices have stabilized or are still declining, include the United States, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan and Denmark.

The report also warned that even those countries that have seen a recovery should be aware of the dangers from housing bubbles, so that tightening lending requirements might still be prudent.

The housing recovery here in the United States is still fragile and will only fully recover by reducing government’s role in in the mortgage-finance system, according to Bloomberg.

“There are positive signs, the problem is that it’s not a really strong positive sign yet,” said Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values.

One positive sign for the United States is that Americans purchased new homes in September at the fastest clip in two years.

“We have to get back to a private-sector mortgage market, without government dominance,” Shiller said.

“We have to think about alternative mortgages that don’t invite the same sort of crisis where we have 10 million homeowners under water. We don’t want to put Americans in such leveraged positions.”

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: ‘Money From Heaven a Path to Hell.’ See Evidence.

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