Tags: Farrell | Dow | jump | plunge

MarketWatch’s Farrell: Dow Might Jump 47%, Then Plunge 50%

Wednesday, 26 Sep 2012 07:55 AM

By Dan Weil

The stock market might well soar for the next two years and then plummet for the two years after that, says MarketWatch columnist Paul Farrell.

“Dow skyrockets near 20,000 by 2014? In two years? Then crashes near 10,000 by 2016 presidential elections? Possible? You bet. Deja vu 2007-2008,” he writes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 13,457.55 on Tuesday.

Editor's Note: See the Disturbing Charts: 50% Unemployment, 90% Stock Market Crash, 100% Inflation

Farrell doesn’t say what would push the market higher — presumably it’s the same combination of near-zero interest rates and modest economic growth that has led to the more than twofold gain over the past 3 ½ years.

But he does have an idea of what will send stocks reeling.

“A global crisis could sink the Dow to 10,000 by the 2016 presidential elections, like 2008.” He is referring to the market’s plunge amid the financial crisis of 2008 that came after the five-year rally to record highs in 2007.

And Farrell has a message for those who think the market can’t drop that far. “You can never trust Wall Street bulls, they’re lying to you 93 percent of the time,” he writes.

While it’s unclear whether Farrell is bullish for the fourth quarter, it’s clear that Goldman Sachs analysts aren’t.

Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin writes in a report obtained by CNBC that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will likely drop 14 percent by year-end, as the Jan. 1 fiscal cliff draws closer and closer.

Editor's Note: See the Disturbing Charts: 50% Unemployment, 90% Stock Market Crash, 100% Inflation

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