Tags: Chalupnik | stocks | thrive | 2013

Nuveen’s Chalupnik: Stocks Might Drop Further Now, but Will Thrive Next Year

Wednesday, 14 Nov 2012 11:52 AM

By Dan Weil

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The stock market’s recent decline could continue for the next few weeks, but the forecast is sunny for 2013, says David Chalupnik, head of equities at Nuveen Asset Management.

In the near-term equities could fall 10 percent from their September highs, he says. That would entail a drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 to 1,318 from 1,378 early Wednesday.

“Things are going to be rocky through year-end, but assuming we don’t fall off that [fiscal] cliff, we’re looking at a good 2013,” Chalupnik tells Yahoo.

Editor's Note: How You Lost $85,000 During the Last Decade. See the Numbers.

"We could easily tick down 10 percent, but our bet is that we do solve the fiscal cliff. Both parties have a lot of reasons to solve it. … Once that compromise is made, the market's going up."

So what are the positive drivers for stocks? First, there’s the improving U.S. economy, Chalupnik says. Gross domestic product growth accelerated to 2 percent in the third quarter from 1.3 percent in the second, driven by consumer demand.

“And the fourth quarter is looking good as well,” he says, adding that China’s economy also is improving.

Others agree with Chalupnik that the stock market will lack definitive direction until the fiscal cliff is addressed.

“We will continue to drift sideways until we see some progress on the fiscal cliff negotiations,” Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer of Oakbrook Investments in Lisle, Ill., tells Bloomberg.

Editor's Note: How You Lost $85,000 During the Last Decade. See the Numbers.

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