Worried About a Market Correction? Own Metals!

Monday, 27 Jan 2014 07:19 AM

By Sean Hyman

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink
Are you worried about a stock market correction? If you've bought stocks like we do in the Ultimate Wealth Report, you don't really have to worry because those stocks were bought at much cheaper valuations than the valuations of the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500.

However, if you do own stocks that are tracking the major indexes and trade at high price-earnings (P/E) ratios like the overall market does, then you should be a bit concerned about a correction.

One thing you could do is lighten up some of your positions when your stocks trade toward the high-end of their historical P/E norms like they do now.

But another thing you can do is look to what has been beaten down and what can have an inverse correlation with the stock market.

Right now, that scenario is in the metals (gold, silver, palladium, platinum, etc.).

Oh don't worry! It's not as complicated as it may sound. You don't have to open up a commodity/futures account. There are exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track all of these metals. So you can buy these ETFs right through the same stock brokerage account that you'd buy Google, Apple or IBM through.

Has the market drop caught us by surprise? I mean, can anyone actually know when a stock market correction is coming? Yes! You know that when the valuations are getting toward the high side of their historical norms (P/Es of 18 to 25 for the S&P 500) you're taking on high risks by remaining in the market then.

And no, none of this has been a shocker to me, my subscribers or blog readers. For instance, back on Dec. 9, I talked to you about the possibility of gold bottoming soon. Then on the 23rd, I said to buy gold when no one wants it. So far, gold has bottomed the week that article was released.

Then, last week, I talked to you about why the stock market is due to correct severely soon. Again, it was due to historical valuations. It wasn't guesswork. It wasn't luck. It was research.

As I'm writing this on Thursday, Jan. 23, the market has corrected hard. But this is just a foretaste of what's to come. In the coming weeks to months, we'll see a correction that makes Thursday's correction look like child's play.

Ok, but why metals? Much of the time metals will not be highly correlated to the stock market. And right now is definitely one of those times. If there's something that is lofty right now, it's U.S. stocks.

If there's something that has been beaten down for around three years back to back, it's metals. They've been very inversely correlated. You see, when there was no fear, the thought was, "why be in metals?" Instead, look to stocks.

But now that metals have been down for several years and U.S. stock market averages are getting lofty, the metals look compelling once again.

Why would the metals rally when they haven't during the past several years?

1) When an asset class has been down for three years in a row, the sentiment for the asset is atrocious and that's when it should begin to become interesting to you as a true investor. Warren Buffett says, "Get greedy when others are fearful" and John Templeton says, "Buy at the point of maximum pessimism." Well, these assets are so hated, that it fits the bill when it comes to investors being pessimistic about metals. You see, the masses always think what has been for a long time will continue to be.

2) The dollar is slumping again. Last June/July, I went on CNBC and Fox Business Network and told them that the dollar was slumping again. No one seemed to believe me. But it peaked out in early July and it's been heading lower overall ever since. Right now, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to hold below its 200-day moving average, which keeps a bearish outlook hanging over the greenback. Well, the metals and the buck tend to trade opposite of each other over time. So now, we're starting to see the metals perk up as a result of the dollar's sell-off.

3) Gold, silver and platinum have all likely double bottomed on their charts, starting back in June and completed it in December. Since then, the metals have been firming up and their biggest gains are coming in the weeks to months ahead as long as the double bottom (W-shape pattern) holds on their daily charts. (Palladium held up better than all of these. It never made fresh lows like these other metals did.)

4) As the global economy is improving, people from China to the United States are turning in their old cars and getting new ones. This places more demand on metals, as catalytic converters are made out of palladium and platinum for those cars and as silver is used in the electronics.

5) The CRB Commodity Index appears to have double bottomed between November and early January. This takes a look at commodities more broadly and shows us that the growing global growth is now starting to cause commodities as a whole to begin to firm up and likely turn higher once again. Well, the metals will benefit from commodities heading higher overall. With the dollar heading lower and global growth returning, 2014 is likely going to be a great year for commodities, especially these metals.

So if you want something that could benefit from a stock market correction, dollar devaluation, global growth returning, etc. then check out metal ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) and ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT).

God Bless!

About the Author: Sean Hyman
Sean Hyman is a member of the Moneynews Financial Brain Trust.
Click Here to read more of his articles. He is also the editor of Ultimate Wealth Report. Discover more by Clicking Here Now.

© 2014 Moneynews. All rights reserved.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web

Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Retype Email:
Country
Zip Code:
 
You May Also Like
Around the Web

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, NewsmaxWorld, NewsmaxHealth, are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved