Silver Outperforming and Still Has Room to Rise

Tuesday, 20 Aug 2013 07:41 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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With stocks struggling over the last few weeks, investors have been looking for alternatives. Bonds have not been the answer, as they have slipped just as much if not more than stocks have — at least when it comes to Treasurys.

One bright spot has been silver. The metal has gained more than 17.5 percent in the last two weeks, while the Standard & Poor's 500 has lost 3.5 percent.

The rally has put silver in overbought territory on the daily charts, but not on the weekly charts.

While this is all well and good, the most encouraging thing about silver in my opinion is that the sentiment isn't even close to being overly optimistic.

Just two months ago, the large speculators were extremely close to having a net short position for the first time in a long time. My data access goes back to January 2004, and the group has never been net short during this time period.

Even after the rally over the last few weeks, the net long position is only 12,709 contracts.

Over the last few years, the time to worry about a pullback in silver is when the large speculators are net long over 40,000 contracts.

With the overbought levels on the daily charts, I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight pullback, but I would view that as a buying opportunity.

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