Finally, a Group That Isn't Extremely Bullish

Tuesday, 17 Dec 2013 06:53 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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With almost all of the traditional sentiment indicators showing extremely bullish skews, I was surprised to finally find an indicator that wasn't over-the-top bullish.

Looking at the Commitment of Traders report that was released on Friday, large speculators are net long less than 30,000 contracts of the E-mini S&P futures.

Apparently futures traders aren't as optimistic as equity investors.

Just five weeks ago, the group was net long over 100,000 contracts, so you can see that the sentiment has shifted in the last month.

On the other side of the equation, the Investors Intelligence ratio continued to climb last week, as the bullish percentage rose to 58.2 percent, while the bearish percentage remained at 14.3 percent.

Last week, I expressed how I wasn't sure if the ratio had ever gone above 4.0. If it hadn't before, it has now, as the ratio is now at 4.07.

Meanwhile, the 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio has been under 0.60 for almost two months now and has only been above that threshold for 15 days in the last 4 1/2 months.

We saw a similar period in the spring of 2011, right before the market struggled throughout the spring and summer that year.

Almost all the sentiment indicators are pointing to a correction in the near future.

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