Mixed Moves From Sentiment Indicators as the Shutdown Enters its 2nd Week

Tuesday, 08 Oct 2013 07:48 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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With the government shutdown entering its second week and the debt ceiling needing to be raised in only 10 days, it was very surprising to see one sentiment indicator mover toward a more bullish stance.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has jumped sharply over the last two weeks, which you would expect. A higher VIX means more volatility and to a degree more fear from investors. The VIX closed at 19.41 Monday, the highest reading since the last week of June.

The 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio moved up from the 2 ½-year low that I wrote about last week, which is indicative of increased bearishness from the option traders.

The most baffling move came from the Investors Intelligence ratio. The bullish percentage jumped from 44.3 percent to 46.4 percent, and the ratio jumped to 2.495, which is the most bullish ratio since early August.

The really baffling part was that the bearish percentage fell from 20.6 percent to 18.6 percent, the second-lowest reading on the bearish side this year.

With the losses experienced in the last few weeks and the situation in Washington, an increase in bullish sentiment is hard to explain. This concerns me as it means there is more potential selling down the road.

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