Bullish Sentiment Finally Falling but Bears Stay Still

Tuesday, 24 May 2011 07:56 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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This past week’s Investors Intelligence report showed that the bullish percentage fell to 45.6 percent. This is the first time in over six months that the bullish percentage has been below 50.

The bearish percentage didn’t jump nearly as much as the bullish percentage fell, suggesting that newsletter editors are moving to a neutral stance.

While it is encouraging to see the bullish percentage falling, it would be more encouraging if the bearish percentage was climbing. Over the last few years, the more severe pullbacks haven't stopped until the bearish percentage matches the bullish percentage.

Right now the ratio is still 2.3 to 1 for the bulls.

With the S&P close to closing below its 20-week moving average for the first time since last summer, you would think advisers would be taking a more cautious stance.

I would like to see the overbought/oversold indicators move down to oversold on the weekly charts and for the Investors Intelligence ratio to drop down closer to one. These two events would make me feel better about going long the overall market.

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