Throughout the first quarter, we watched as the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained ground week after week. By the end of the quarter, the index gained ground in 11 of the 13 weeks.
As one would expect, as the market moved higher, the optimism moved higher as well.
By March 13, the Investors Intelligence ratio had jumped to 2.66 with a bullish percentage of 50 percent and a bearish percentage of 18.8 percent.
In the weeks following this high reading we saw the ratio dip ever so slightly, but that trend ended last week, when the bullish percentage jumped to 52 percent and the bearish percentage came in at 19.4 percent.
Ironically, this puts the ratio at 2.68 and that is the highest reading since the second quarter of 2011. The irony is that it came during the worst weekly loss of 2013.
With the market drastically overbought on both the weekly and monthly charts and the fact that we are heading into earnings season, seeing such overly optimistic sentiment readings is very concerning.
While the market may move a little higher from here, it looks to me like the bulk of the gains have already taken place. Now seems like the time to protect your portfolio and wait for a better opportunity to grow it in the future.
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