Slump in Gold Prices Could Be Presenting A Great Opportunity

Tuesday, 19 Feb 2013 07:42 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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Over the last 13 weeks, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has been on a tremendous run, with the index gaining ground in 11 of the 13 weeks. During this time, the index has gained right at 11.7 percent.

While stocks have been soaring, gold has been mired in a downswing, with prices falling 7.9 percent in the last 13 weeks and losing ground in seven of them.

The slump in gold led to the commodity closing below its 100-week moving average for the first time since December 2008. It also led to the 10-week Relative Strength Index for gold reaching its most oversold level since October 2008.

As you might expect, while the price of gold has been declining, the sentiment toward it has been falling as well.

Looking at the most recent Commitment of Traders report for gold, we see that large speculators are the least bullish they have been since last August.

Large speculators are rarely net short on gold, so you have to look at the bullish sentiment in relative terms.

The group is net long 126,835 contracts at this time and that is down from a net long position of over 200,000 contracts at the end of November.

To put this into perspective, the last time large speculators were net long less than 100,00o contracts was in November 2008.

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