The VIX Fakes a Breakout

Tuesday, 30 Apr 2013 07:39 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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A mere eight trading days ago, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) looked like it was ready to make a run to the 20 level or possibly even higher.

Now the VIX has drifted back down below the 15 level and closed at 13.71 Monday.

This decline in the VIX is indicative of investor complacency and that is something that has been going on for several months now. The VIX has only closed above the 15 level eight times so far this year.

The one positive about the current level of the VIX is that it is a full point higher than it was the last time the Standard & Poor’s 500 was flirting with 1,600.

Meanwhile, the Investors Intelligence Ratio came in at 2.26 last week, as the bullish percentage came in at 44.3 percent and the bearish percentage dropped to 19.6 percent.

This marked the 16th straight week that the ratio has been above 2.0, with the last reading below the mark being the first week of the year.

I’m not sure what it is going to take to get these two indicators to move off their overly optimistic levels, but having them move to more neutral readings would make me feel a whole lot better about the market.

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