Investors Intelligence Ratio Very Concerning

Tuesday, 03 Dec 2013 07:12 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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I have been writing about the Investors Intelligence ratio being skewed toward the bullish side for several months now.

Although I am starting to feel a little like "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," the most recent Investors Intelligence report caused me to change my intermediate outlook for the Standard & Poor's 500 from neutral to bearish.

Last week's report showed a bullish percentage of 55.7 percent, which is the highest reading in more than two years.

On the other side of the equation, the bearish percentage dropped to 14.4 percent, which is the lowest reading in over six years.

The combination of these two percentages put the ratio of bulls to bears at 3.868, the highest reading in at least seven years.

I say at least seven years because that is as far back as I have the data saved. How far back you would have to go to find a higher ratio isn't readily available.

The only time the ratio was anywhere close to this high that I can recall was in the spring of 2011.

That signal came right as the S&P 500 was topping before struggling for six months. During that six-month period, the index dropped more than 20 percent from the high to the low.

I can see a similar retreat over the next six months.

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