From the March 16 bottom through last Friday, the S&P 500 enjoyed a minor rally that saw the index gain just shy of 5 percent. The last six weeks have followed a pattern of two weeks down, two weeks up and two weeks down.
Given the choppy trading action on the S&P, you would think that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) would have risen to reflect the more volatile environment. Instead, the VIX plunged from a high of 31.28 on March 16 to a low of 14.92 last Friday (April 15).
Over the past few years, the 15 level has served as support for the VIX with the index hitting this level in April 2010 and in May 2008. Both times the VIX got this low, the S&P moved sharply lower.
Between the Investors Intelligence report that I talked about last week and the VIX hitting 15, we are looking at two indicators that suggest a correction is coming.
Not just a few percentage points trimmed off the indices in a week or two, but rather a more prolonged correction of 10 percent or more.
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