10-Year Treasury Note Hated By Large and Small Speculators

Tuesday, 24 Sep 2013 07:45 AM

By Rick Pendergraft

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There has been a lot written about interest rates since last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the accompanying statement.

With the Fed's decision to continue its open market purchasing at the same pace we have seen over the last year, many investors and analysts were surprised that the Fed didn't announce plans to taper their purchases.

I am not here to debate whether the decision was right or wrong, but what I do know is that investors are not big fans of 10-year Treasury notes right now.

Looking at the Commitment of Traders report from this past Friday, we see that large speculators are short over 120,000 contracts, which is the most since November 2011.

Small speculators are short over 165,000 contracts and have been short over 200,000 contracts much of the last three months. The last time small speculators were even close to showing this much bearishness was in May 2006.

With the yield on the 10-year Treasury sitting right around 2.71 percent right now, it looks like we might see a rally in the prices, which will drive the yield down.

In November 2011, the yield fell from 2.25 percent to 1.8 percent in the next few months and eventually fell to 1.5 percent in July 2012.

Back in 2006 when small speculators were so bearish, the yield was up at 5.2 percent and fell to 4.5 percent by November.

Looking at these past instances, yields appear to be ready for a dip.

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