Michael Purves, chief global strategist of Weeden & Co., is bullish on gold, despite its recent decline. And he’s even more bullish on gold miner stocks.
Both technicals and fundamentals argue in favor of gold, Purves tells Yahoo. The precious metal has dropped 11 percent since Feb. 28 to $1,595 an ounce.
On the technical side, gold fell below its 200-day moving average in December, Purves notes.
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"The last time gold broke the 200-day moving average was back during the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008-09. You had six months of consolidation before getting back to a sustained [upward] trend.”
Today is "eerily similar," he says.
As for fundamentals, Europe’s woes will boost gold because either the euro will collapse, creating chaos and more interest in gold, or the European Central Bank will increase its lending to commercial banks, which essentially means more money printing, Purves says.
When it comes to gold stocks, they have plunged relative to the price of gold in “almost parabolic fashion,” he says.
“Each of those parabolic spikes over the last 20 years has set up an enormous rally of 50 to 90 percent in one, three, or six months.”
As for gold itself, Goldman Sachs is optimistic, just like Purves.
The investment bank reiterated its "constructive" price view Thursday, Reuters reports. Goldman cites weak U.S. economic growth, Europe’s turmoil and resilient physical demand as supportive factors.
Editor's Note: I Wish I Were Wrong — Economist Laments Being Right. See Interview.
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