Experts: Financial Market Volatility Isn't Over

Tuesday, 02 Jul 2013 08:07 AM

By Dan Weil

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It's been a rocky ride for financial markets since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said June 19 that the Fed may taper its quantitative easing later this year.

And many experts anticipate the turbulence will continue.

"We think it is going to be a bumpy summer, a volatile summer," Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, tells The Wall Street Journal. To be sure, she believes stocks will end the period higher.

Editor's Note:
The ‘Unthinkable’ Could Happen — Wall Street Journal. Prepare for Meltdown

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 5.5 percent from its June 18 close (the day before Bernanke's comments) to its low June 24. Since then the S&P 500 has rebounded 2.9 percent.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a 22-momth high of 2.66 percent June 24 from 2.2 percent June 18. The yield stood at 2.49 percent Monday.

It was the rate spike that really freaked out investors, many experts argue.

"The transition from a falling-interest-rate environment to a rising interest-rate market is a huge transition," Patterson says. "A lot of people who work on trading floors have never worked in another environment."

Bond yields have been in a downward trend since 1981.

Going forward, developed-country financial markets may outperform emerging markets, says Seamus Mac Gorain, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase.

"Our outlook is for the developed market selloff to proceed at a far more measured pace over the remainder of the year," he wrote in a report last week obtained by Bloomberg.

But, "the position squaring in emerging markets likely has some way to go, not least because the degree of illiquidity in the selloff has come as a surprise," Mac Gorain says.

Editor's Note: The ‘Unthinkable’ Could Happen — Wall Street Journal. Prepare for Meltdown

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