Tags: bull | market | Treasurys | bear

Experts: Bull Market Has Ended for Treasurys, but Bear Hasn’t Begun

Friday, 04 Jan 2013 08:27 AM

By Dan Weil

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The 32-year Treasurys rally is over, many experts agree, but they don’t think a bear market has begun.

The Federal Reserve has pushed yields down so low that it’s difficult for them to drop much further. The 10-year yield hit a record low of 1.38 percent July 25 and has bounced back to 1.90 percent as of late Thursday, a seven-month high.

Trading volume fell 10 percent last year from 2011, despite the issuance of more debt, The Wall Street Journal reports. That’s a sign of lessened interest in the market.

Editor's Note: 'It’s Curtains for the US' — Hear Unapologetic Warning from Prophetic Economist.

The Fed’s continued easing has some market participants worried about inflation, and an acceleration in economic growth could weigh on bonds too. The economy expanded 3.1 percent in the third quarter.

"Most of the [Treasurys] rally has run its course," Terry Belton, head of fixed-income strategy at JPMorgan Chase, tells The Journal.

Still, Treasurys benefit from the fact that many investors view them as a safe haven from global economic woes and that many individual investors remain wary of stocks.

"People don't know how scary the bond market can be," says James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management, which oversees $310 billion in assets.

"The pressure will be on as people realize the business cycle is a bit stronger than they thought," he adds. "The market will fight the Fed."

But Treasurys have tumbled in the two days of trading since Congress approved the fiscal cliff bill.

“Everybody seems to be of a mindset that we’ve skirted the worst of the pernicious effects of the fiscal cliff, with the result that the economy is unlikely to go into recession this year,” William O’Donnell, head U.S. government-bond strategist at RBS Securities, tells Bloomberg.

Editor's Note: 'It’s Curtains for the US' — Hear Unapologetic Warning from Prophetic Economist.

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