Piper Jaffray: Get Ready for Stock Market Correction

Thursday, 07 Mar 2013 11:20 AM

By Dan Weil

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Some stock market participants say it’s off to the moon now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit record highs for two straight days.

But not Piper Jaffray analysts Craig Johnson and Leah Williams. They think the market is poised for a correction.

"We now believe we are at the first of three market pivot points this year and suspect a drop is now likely to unfold over the next several months," they write in a commentary obtained by CNBC.

Editor's Note: See the Disturbing Charts: 50% Unemployment, 90% Stock Market Crash, 100% Inflation

"We suspect this pullback in the broader market will be tactical in nature and may represent the single-best buying opportunity this year."

The Piper duo sees a correction of up to 10 percent before a rebound. A 10 percent decline from Wednesday’s close of 14,296 would take the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 12,866.

Johnson and Williams sum up their 2013 forecast as "a hop, a drop and a pop." The rise so far this year — 9 percent for the Dow — is the “hop,” the correction would be the “drop” and the rebound would be the “pop.”

That “pop” will ultimately take the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to 2,000 by August 2014, they predict. That’s a 30 percent jump from Wednesday’s close of 1,541.

Among others who foresee a pullback is Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays.

“There’s likely to be a growth-related correction at the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second,” he tells Bloomberg.

“We don’t have to worry too much about the Fed withdrawing stimulus early. Our problem is the impact of fiscal contraction, sluggish growth and investors being overly enthusiastic about the implications of the housing market.”

Editor's Note: See the Disturbing Charts: 50% Unemployment, 90% Stock Market Crash, 100% Inflation

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