Tags: Jessop | gold | 1400 | 2014

Capital Economics' Jessop: Gold Headed for $1,400 in 2014

Thursday, 26 Dec 2013 10:34 AM

By Dan Weil

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While many experts turned bearish on gold as it hit a three-year low last week, Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics, predicts the precious metal is poised for a rebound next year above $1,400 an ounce.

Spot gold traded at $1,213.91 Thursday morning, down 28 percent so far in 2013.

"The consensus is that the price of gold will grind lower in 2014, at best, as the support from loose U.S. monetary policy gradually weakens," he says, according to CNBC.

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"In contrast, with investor sentiment already so heavily negative, our view is that the risks for the coming year are firmly skewed to the upside."

So why will gold rise?

First, while the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its bond buying next month, its policy stance remains quite stimulative, Jessop explains.

Second, financial turmoil is likely to revisit the eurozone next year, boosting gold as a safe haven, he adds.

In addition, concern about deflation, generally seen as a negative for gold, could turn into a positive, Jessop notes. That's because deflation would make it harder for European governments to repay their debts and could push the European Central Bank to ease further.

"Overall we see plenty of scope for gold to bounce back in 2014. Indeed, the poor performance in 2013 has left the precious metal looking attractive again compared to other assets, including equities."

Patrick Legland, a cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale in Paris, is one of the gold bears.

"Gold lost its role as a safe haven against systemic risk in 2013," he writes in a commentary obtained by MarketWatch. And unlike Jessop, he sees the risk of deflation as negative for the precious metal.

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