Charles Nenner's Gurwitz: Stocks Will Be Volatile Next Year; Gold Ultimately Headed Higher

Friday, 20 Dec 2013 06:25 PM

By Dan Weil and John Bachman

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Stocks will have a volatile year in 2014, while gold will likely fall a bit further before rebounding in earnest 18 months from now, says David Gurwitz, managing director at Charles Nenner Research.

Stocks have room to rise a little higher in the short term, he tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview. But, "we're at the end," Gurwitz said. "Next year is going to be highly volatile, and the stock top is in the second week in January." The volatility stems from market cycles, he says.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index hit a record high of 1,823.75 Friday, closing at 1,818.32.

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As for gold, "we still think there's potentially more to go on the downside, and we have a downside target of around $1,140 an ounce," Gurwitz said.

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Inflation isn't an issue, he notes. U.S. consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in the 12 months through November.

February gold futures settled at $1,203.70 on the Comex Friday after hitting a three-year low Thursday.

"The big move up, which is going to happen, it's not going to start for at least 1 ½ years or so," Gurwitz said.

"It's been painful for people that didn't get out [on the way down], but if they could hold longer-term, it will go back to its highs and even surpass them."

When it comes to bonds, the 30-year bull market will shift to a 30-year bear market—probably in mid-2014 or a little sooner, Gurwitz says. But for the short-term, he likes the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF).

The Federal Reserve's tapering won't affect the market's cycle, he says.

Editor's Note: Get Tom Luongo's Gold Stock Adviser — Click Here Now!

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