Blogger Brown: The Stars Are Aligned for a Big Move Up in Stocks

Friday, 18 Oct 2013 08:04 AM

By John Morgan

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Investment adviser Josh Brown of the Reformed Broker blog says stocks have all of the "rocket fuel" they need for a big upward trajectory into year-end.

He writes there are a bunch of nice set-ups that could spark the move up.

Among them, he estimates valuations in world stock markets are cheap, and banks are highly capitalized.

Editor’s Note:
5 Reasons Stocks Will Collapse . . .

Meanwhile, small and mid-cap stocks are still under-owned by pensions, endowments and insurance companies, in Brown's estimation, even though they are at all-time highs.

Brown also likes current market odds going into year-end: "Going back 110 years, when the Dow [Jones Industrial Average] has been up in the first half, it's finished the year strong with gains in the back half 70 percent of the time."

Finally, from a macroeconomic view, Brown says a Federal Reserve taper is unlikely in the short term, even as U.S. households have regained their 2007 peak in total net worth.

"What happens from here? My guess would be that we have all the rocket fuel we need for an explosion," Brown concludes.

MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert believes that the Dow Theory, one of the most widely recognized market timing systems, looks favorable at this point.

"On the interpretations of two of the three Dow Theorists I monitor, the bull market remains intact. And the third doesn't so much disagree with that assessment, at least for the short term, as remind us that the bull market won't last forever," he writes.

In a guest column on The Big Picture blog, Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, explains that the bull case remains strong, but he also lists some bearish warnings.

By Boockvar's estimation, the Congressional battle over spending and debt will be refought again in three or four short months, stocks are at rich valuations, interest rates recently moved higher, and the U.S. economy is not improving.

He concludes that because bullish sentiment is so widespread, things could easily swing in an adverse direction.

"Outside of perma bears, there are no bears," Boockvar writes. "Everyone wants to buy the dip as measured by the weekly Investors Intelligence data."

Editor’s Note: 5 Reasons Stocks Will Collapse . . .

Related Stories:

MSN's Jim Jubak: A Stock Rally Could Last Until December

Marc Faber: Pray All Asset Classes Don't Collapse at the Same Time

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