Tags: ADP | jobs | forecast | payrolls

ADP Jobs Data Lead Economists to Boost Forecasts for Friday's Report

Thursday, 09 Jan 2014 09:04 AM

By Dan Weil

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The private sector added 238,000 jobs in December, according to ADP, far surpassing economists' forecasts and leading some to raise their predictions for Friday's government report on December employment.

A Bloomberg survey of economists for the ADP report had produced a median estimate of a 200,000 increase.

As for the government report, Goldman Sachs economists have raised their estimate of the December payroll gain to 200,000 from 175,000. They based their change on the ADP report and the increase in the December ISM non-manufacturing employment index, CNBC reports.

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Gabe Mann, Treasury strategist at RBS, said the ADP number could push up the expectations the bond market was already looking for, which was 215,000, CNBC notes.

JPMorgan still expects December nonfarm payrolls to come in at 215,000, but noted the ADP report put its forecast at risk, according to CNBC. Citigroup raised its forecast from 125,000 to 165,000, and Deutsche Bank ballooned its forecast to 250,000 from 200,000.

Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast payrolls gained 196,000 last month, down from 203,000 in November, and that the unemployment rate would remain steady at 7 percent.

The Federal Reserve has begun tapering its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, and many economists expect it will add another $10 billion to the tapering at each upcoming policy meeting.

But strong economic numbers could accelerate that schedule, economists say.

"How fast they ultimately taper will be data dependent, and if we keep getting these upside surprises it could be faster than people think," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, tells CNBC.

When it comes to employment, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in a statement after the ADP report, "The job market ended 2013 on a high note," Bloomberg reports.

"Job gains are broad-based across industries, most notably in construction and manufacturing. It appears that businesses are growing more confident and increasing their hiring."

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